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Corona virus as of March 31

Corona Virus March 31

The spread of the virus ist still ongoing and a lot of countries are in the state of „lock-down“. Fortunately most of the European countries decided to lock-down quite early and now we can see the first results of this. We have a time delay of about two weeks, but it seems as if thing are going better now.

Applying a model o exponential growth to the number of „confirmed case“ we see today the following results (here the datasets made here) using the function showGroth



So there is a change in the actual situation in Italy - the strongly increasing curve flattens, maybe this is also true for Germany. The situation is serious for the USA. There actions are take by far to late. We have seen a Carnival (Mardi Gras) in New Orleans - as usual and also the "Spring Break" as every year in a time were all this activities are canceled in Germany and many other countries. So I fear that we'll see strongly increasing numbers of confirmed cases in the US for the next two weeks.

Computing the mortality rate for countries haven more than 1000 confirmed cases one has to recognize that the health systems Italy and Spain are at its limits (or beyond). The mortality rate can be computed in the following way:

then

delivers the following chart

We can also easily calculate the development of the mortality rate over time:

In the beginning of the spread of the virus, the mortality rate is heavily increasing, due to the comparably low numbers of confirmed cases, then it gets goes down and increases moderately. Only for Spain the development differs from this picture - here it was constantly increasing. Maybe due to late intense testing. Compared to other countries we see a rather low mortality rate in Germany, maybe this is due to the fact that in Germany there are more places in hospitals than inmost otters countries- also the number of beds for intense medical care are at top level compared to tore countries around the world.